This weekend marks the tenth anniversary of the UK’s hottest day when recorded temperatures across the south-east soared above 38C for the first time ever.
A study since then has uncovered that the 38.5C (101.3F) value may be anomalous after it became apparent that the Brogdale value was nearly 2C higher than nearby stations – a fact that would normally rule out such a reading. The actual site also leaves something to be desired with the leylandii hedge being too close to the met enclosure – and possibly helping up the temperature. Scientists are a fussy lot and like things to be done properly – believing that the figure of 38.1C recorded at Kew and Gravesend on August 10 represents the true record.
But the Met Office refuse to budge and are sticking with Brogdale.
I recorded 38.4C in my own back garden – but because it is not an official site it doesn’t count. Other sites close by also set records that day: 37.9C was reached at Epping while another observer at Woodford Green recorded 36.5C at 2.30pm.
Being the weather anorak I am my memories of that day are still very clear. The birth of my first daughter was imminent and my wife and I were frantically trying to finish the kitchen of our house in Leytonstone. I’d borrowed a van off a mate that day to pick up kitchen units from the Stansted area. The old Renault Master didn’t have air conditioning and a faulty fan made the cabin feel like an oven. As we trundled back down the M11 from our trip to ‘You’re Furnished’ I wound down the window to experience what I can only describe as like being blasted with a hairdryer. Obviously anything above normal body temperature of 37C is going to feel warm – the opposite of the windchill factor you get in winter. Somehow, through all the heat and pouring with sweat, we managed to unload the van at the other end and completed the kitchen.
The day was the peak of the heatwave with just a couple more 30C days before, much to the relief of my wife, cooler weather arrived. Our daughter was born, over two weeks past her due date, on September 7. A sunny, fresh morning I’ll also never forget.
People often ask if it is possible that the record will be broken. Of course with the right synoptics anything is possible. And official records in the UK, and the world, are just a blip of what has gone before. Diaries of events during the July 1808 heatwave, mentioning accounts of people and livestock dropping dead in fields and birds dropping out of the sky, suggest that somewhere in Lincolnshire possibly saw the temperature exceed 40C.
A report in today’s Express suggests that a heatwave could be on the way. Unless they are looking at a different set of charts I think the report is probably more to boost their sales – figures show that every time the paper splashes on the weather sales spike 10%.
While we may still see the odd hot day, as we did last Thursday when I recorded the year’s second-highest temperature of 33.6C, I don’t think we are going to see a sustained run of 30C plus temperatures. More *heatspike* than *heatwave*. August is likely to be average overall.